the inevitable

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/27209431-the-inevitable

the only constant is change

Becoming

  • technology is always changing, hard to predict what will come from it

  • the most important thing that came out from the last century is scientific method which became the process/blueprint to create all these new inventions

  • no one cared to buy domains when the internet was in the early stages

  • new frontiers will always be there. in 2016, whatever invented will be akin to domains back in the days looking back from 2050

Cognifying

  • "Google is an AI company, not a search company" - Brin at a party before its IPO

  • when electricity was discovered, the business model is taking a tool and electrify it

  • now it's take x and add AI

  • cognified - music, laundry, marketing, real estate, nursing, construction, ethics, toys, sports, knitting, etc.

  • AI breakthroughs now because we have: cheap parallel computation, big data, and better algorithms

  • robots will blend into ours lives and take away old jobs but new jobs will be created

    • jobs humans can do but robots can do even better

    • jobs humans can't do but robots can

    • jobs we didn't know we wanted done

    • jobs only humans can do - at first

Flowing

  • internet is like world's largest copy machine and copies will flow freely through the network forever

  • humans like to create based on what we know

    • initial computers had a "desktop" with "folders" and "files"

    • then the web turned it into a "browser" with "pages"

    • now we have a "stream" with "channels", adding "tags", "likes", only present, no past or future

  • first industry disrupted by this was music

  • universal law of economics - the moment something becomes free and ubiquitous, its position in the economic equation suddenly inverts

    • electrical lighting was new and scarce, the poor burned candles

    • electricity became common and almost free, candles became a sign of luxury

  • what can't be copied? Trust

  • add generative qualities to the free product:

    • immediacy

    • personalization

    • interpretation

    • authenticity

    • accessibility

    • embodiment

    • patronage

    • discoverability

  • 4 stages of flowing:

    • fixed / rare

    • free / ubiquitous

    • flowing / sharing

    • opening / becoming

Screening

  • from people of the word -> people of the book -> people of the screen

  • books will be linked like the web (sort of like wikipedia)

  • universal library like the library of alexandria

  • the screens will become smaller and smaller

Accessing

  • from noun to verb, product to service, ownership to rental

  • 5 deep technological trends:

    • dematerialization - software eats the world, SaaS

    • real-time on demand - rethink the ways to service, uber for X

    • decentralization - bitcoin

    • platform synergy - apple appstore, software ecosystems

    • clouds - dynamically distributed, final step: decentralized access (the cloud)

Sharing

  • digital social-ism - collaborative filtering and promote the best stuff

  • 4 steps of social arrangements

    • sharing - youtube, pinterest, foursquare, yelp

    • cooperation - creative commons, tags

    • collaboration - open source softwares and hardwares

    • collectivism - openhub.net all work for free, paid by being allowed to stay in the commune

  • google, facebook, twitter all benefited hugely from sharing

  • bottom up is not enough, top down is needed too

  • wikipedia, linux - only a small amount of elites get to make the big decisions

  • hive-mind is good enough and scales up nicely

  • crowd-funding for anything

Filtering

  • filters exist today: gatekeepers, intermediates, curators, brands, government, our cultural environment, our friends, ourselves

  • danger of being rewarded with only what you like, filter bubble - "overfitting"

  • suggest stuff that I don't like but would like to like

  • large-scale personalization is coming for the masses (pills, clothing)

  • in the future, people can copy your filter/recommendation and you'd get monetary value

  • too much data, limited attention - the only scarce thing now

  • attention is rather cheap (around $3/hr) since you always need to spend it

  • google, facebook used data to match ads to users wonderfully with a bidding system

  • new model could be - p2p ad creation network, pinterest like ads curation where the curator gets paid in microtransaction per view

  • more things are being commoditized and decreasing in value but the experience economy is vibrant

Remixing

  • golden age of new mediums - remix out of old genres

  • new genres -> remixed, unbundled, recombined into new genres

  • upsetting the great asymmetry in all media - easier to read a book than to write, listen than compose, view than produce

  • lucas changed the way movies are made from scenes shot to mock slowly edited bit by bit

    • every scene is touched by digital manipulation

    • more in common with the way books are written, paintings are painted

  • books are references and citations but movies are still lacking that

    • how to browse a film the way we browse a book?

    • video summary (from porn invention)

    • video findability is the holy grail - google is working on that by training AI to recognize photos which makes up a video

    • rewindability is another ongoing revolution - shift from orals to books, now happening to movies, music, games and more

  • material to intangible brings into question what ownership is

    • house can only owned by one person, an idea can only be copied

    • laws will be lagging behind but will follow suits to technology

Interacting

  • vr was first started in 1980s but never took off

  • timothy leary compared vr to lsd

  • vr's two benefits: presence and interaction

  • eventually imax's cinema could be projected to your eyes with certain positioning of lighting

  • from second life -> minecraft because too much computing power in the former game

  • nano cameras to track your eye movement and displayed in vr environment

  • eye tracking for auto-annotation if one gets stuck or auto-forward in a video if bored

  • "trouble with computer is there's not enough africa in them"

  • embed microphones, cameras and sensors to use your whole body as a controller

  • eventually if something is not interactive, it's broken

  • interaction expansion:

    • more senses

    • more intimacy

    • more immersion

  • vr world is under total surveillance, everything needs to be tracked

  • identity will be an issue in the future

  • your body will be your password - typing, heartbeat, gait, blink, voice - interaction as a password

Tracking

  • "quantified self" meetup where everything imaginable is tracked

  • personally medicine maker box is possible with tracking

  • evolve our senses with tracking

  • track and share your lifestreams

  • lifelogging with narrative clip to take photos every few moments

  • audio lifelogging is better than visual

  • every car manufactured after 2006 has a tiny obd chip mounted to track miles, speed, braking, etc.

  • tracking will follow the same way of accessing - any data can be tracked, will be tracked

  • ubiquitous tracking is inevitable

  • government is tracking but doing it secretly which needs to be transparent

  • vanity trumps privacy

  • anonymity is like toxic substances. shouldn't be eliminated since it sustains life but should as close to zero as possible

  • giga -> tera -> peta -> exa -> zetta -> yotta -> "unknown"

  • there is a large magnitude of orders between each

  • 54 billion sensors every year by 2020

Questioning

  • wikipedia and ebay shouldn't be possible but did

  • criminals will use creative ways to use the new tools

  • future will be streams of only the impossible moments

  • interwoven between work and play online - a waking dream of sort

  • more advanced tools answer questions but more questions pop out from the answer

  • we really don't know much about the universe at all

  • question <> answer paradigm is shifted - answers are a commodity now

  • a good question is worth a million good answers

  • quality of a good question:

    • not concerned with a correct answer

    • cannot be answered immediately

    • challenges existing answers

    • one you badly want answered once you hear it, but had no inkling you cared before it was asked

    • creates new territory of thinking

    • reframes its own answers

    • is the seed of innovation in science, technology, art, politics, and business

    • is a probe, a what-if scenario

    • skirts on the edge of what is known and not known, neither silly nor obvious

    • cannot be predicted

    • will be the sign of an educated mind

    • is one that generates many other good questions

    • may be the last job a machine will learn to do

    • is what humans are for

Beginning

  • a cycle - a century-long process

  • global system will not be utopia - will be like real-life with classes

  • we are in the beginning right now with the shift from centralized to decentralized

  • singularity - a frontier beyond which nothing can be known

    • "hard" - super ai learns everything there is to know and take over

    • "soft" - a complex interdependence