the inevitable
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/27209431-the-inevitable
the only constant is change

Becoming

  • technology is always changing, hard to predict what will come from it
  • the most important thing that came out from the last century is scientific method which became the process/blueprint to create all these new inventions
  • no one cared to buy domains when the internet was in the early stages
  • new frontiers will always be there. in 2016, whatever invented will be akin to domains back in the days looking back from 2050

Cognifying

  • "Google is an AI company, not a search company" - Brin at a party before its IPO
  • when electricity was discovered, the business model is taking a tool and electrify it
  • now it's take x and add AI
  • cognified - music, laundry, marketing, real estate, nursing, construction, ethics, toys, sports, knitting, etc.
  • AI breakthroughs now because we have: cheap parallel computation, big data, and better algorithms
  • robots will blend into ours lives and take away old jobs but new jobs will be created
    • jobs humans can do but robots can do even better
    • jobs humans can't do but robots can
    • jobs we didn't know we wanted done
    • jobs only humans can do - at first

Flowing

  • internet is like world's largest copy machine and copies will flow freely through the network forever
  • humans like to create based on what we know
    • initial computers had a "desktop" with "folders" and "files"
    • then the web turned it into a "browser" with "pages"
    • now we have a "stream" with "channels", adding "tags", "likes", only present, no past or future
  • first industry disrupted by this was music
  • universal law of economics - the moment something becomes free and ubiquitous, its position in the economic equation suddenly inverts
    • electrical lighting was new and scarce, the poor burned candles
    • electricity became common and almost free, candles became a sign of luxury
  • what can't be copied? Trust
  • add generative qualities to the free product:
    • immediacy
    • personalization
    • interpretation
    • authenticity
    • accessibility
    • embodiment
    • patronage
    • discoverability
  • 4 stages of flowing:
    • fixed / rare
    • free / ubiquitous
    • flowing / sharing
    • opening / becoming

Screening

  • from people of the word -> people of the book -> people of the screen
  • books will be linked like the web (sort of like wikipedia)
  • universal library like the library of alexandria
  • the screens will become smaller and smaller

Accessing

  • from noun to verb, product to service, ownership to rental
  • 5 deep technological trends:
    • dematerialization - software eats the world, SaaS
    • real-time on demand - rethink the ways to service, uber for X
    • decentralization - bitcoin
    • platform synergy - apple appstore, software ecosystems
    • clouds - dynamically distributed, final step: decentralized access (the cloud)

Sharing

  • digital social-ism - collaborative filtering and promote the best stuff
  • 4 steps of social arrangements
    • sharing - youtube, pinterest, foursquare, yelp
    • cooperation - creative commons, tags
    • collaboration - open source softwares and hardwares
    • collectivism - openhub.net all work for free, paid by being allowed to stay in the commune
  • google, facebook, twitter all benefited hugely from sharing
  • bottom up is not enough, top down is needed too
  • wikipedia, linux - only a small amount of elites get to make the big decisions
  • hive-mind is good enough and scales up nicely
  • crowd-funding for anything

Filtering

  • filters exist today: gatekeepers, intermediates, curators, brands, government, our cultural environment, our friends, ourselves
  • danger of being rewarded with only what you like, filter bubble - "overfitting"
  • suggest stuff that I don't like but would like to like
  • large-scale personalization is coming for the masses (pills, clothing)
  • in the future, people can copy your filter/recommendation and you'd get monetary value
  • too much data, limited attention - the only scarce thing now
  • attention is rather cheap (around $3/hr) since you always need to spend it
  • google, facebook used data to match ads to users wonderfully with a bidding system
  • new model could be - p2p ad creation network, pinterest like ads curation where the curator gets paid in microtransaction per view
  • more things are being commoditized and decreasing in value but the experience economy is vibrant

Remixing

  • golden age of new mediums - remix out of old genres
  • new genres -> remixed, unbundled, recombined into new genres
  • upsetting the great asymmetry in all media - easier to read a book than to write, listen than compose, view than produce
  • lucas changed the way movies are made from scenes shot to mock slowly edited bit by bit
    • every scene is touched by digital manipulation
    • more in common with the way books are written, paintings are painted
  • books are references and citations but movies are still lacking that
    • how to browse a film the way we browse a book?
    • video summary (from porn invention)
    • video findability is the holy grail - google is working on that by training AI to recognize photos which makes up a video
    • rewindability is another ongoing revolution - shift from orals to books, now happening to movies, music, games and more
  • material to intangible brings into question what ownership is
    • house can only owned by one person, an idea can only be copied
    • laws will be lagging behind but will follow suits to technology

Interacting

  • vr was first started in 1980s but never took off
  • timothy leary compared vr to lsd
  • vr's two benefits: presence and interaction
  • eventually imax's cinema could be projected to your eyes with certain positioning of lighting
  • from second life -> minecraft because too much computing power in the former game
  • nano cameras to track your eye movement and displayed in vr environment
  • eye tracking for auto-annotation if one gets stuck or auto-forward in a video if bored
  • "trouble with computer is there's not enough africa in them"
  • embed microphones, cameras and sensors to use your whole body as a controller
  • eventually if something is not interactive, it's broken
  • interaction expansion:
    • more senses
    • more intimacy
    • more immersion
  • vr world is under total surveillance, everything needs to be tracked
  • identity will be an issue in the future
  • your body will be your password - typing, heartbeat, gait, blink, voice - interaction as a password

Tracking

  • "quantified self" meetup where everything imaginable is tracked
  • personally medicine maker box is possible with tracking
  • evolve our senses with tracking
  • track and share your lifestreams
  • lifelogging with narrative clip to take photos every few moments
  • audio lifelogging is better than visual
  • every car manufactured after 2006 has a tiny obd chip mounted to track miles, speed, braking, etc.
  • tracking will follow the same way of accessing - any data can be tracked, will be tracked
  • ubiquitous tracking is inevitable
  • government is tracking but doing it secretly which needs to be transparent
  • vanity trumps privacy
  • anonymity is like toxic substances. shouldn't be eliminated since it sustains life but should as close to zero as possible
  • giga -> tera -> peta -> exa -> zetta -> yotta -> "unknown"
  • there is a large magnitude of orders between each
  • 54 billion sensors every year by 2020

Questioning

  • wikipedia and ebay shouldn't be possible but did
  • criminals will use creative ways to use the new tools
  • future will be streams of only the impossible moments
  • interwoven between work and play online - a waking dream of sort
  • more advanced tools answer questions but more questions pop out from the answer
  • we really don't know much about the universe at all
  • question <> answer paradigm is shifted - answers are a commodity now
  • a good question is worth a million good answers
  • quality of a good question:
    • not concerned with a correct answer
    • cannot be answered immediately
    • challenges existing answers
    • one you badly want answered once you hear it, but had no inkling you cared before it was asked
    • creates new territory of thinking
    • reframes its own answers
    • is the seed of innovation in science, technology, art, politics, and business
    • is a probe, a what-if scenario
    • skirts on the edge of what is known and not known, neither silly nor obvious
    • cannot be predicted
    • will be the sign of an educated mind
    • is one that generates many other good questions
    • may be the last job a machine will learn to do
    • is what humans are for

Beginning

  • a cycle - a century-long process
  • global system will not be utopia - will be like real-life with classes
  • we are in the beginning right now with the shift from centralized to decentralized
  • singularity - a frontier beyond which nothing can be known
    • "hard" - super ai learns everything there is to know and take over
    • "soft" - a complex interdependence
Copy link
On this page
Becoming
Cognifying
Flowing
Screening
Accessing
Sharing
Filtering
Remixing
Interacting
Tracking
Questioning
Beginning